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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to deploy military troops to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by significant margins across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a surprising comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in truth, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a family member suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of his opponents, who has claimed Mamd