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For a brief period, Trump appeared to take a firm approach on Ukraine. Following delivering statements of "severe ramifications" last August in case Russia's president continued hindering peace negotiations, Trump ultimately imposed major restrictions on Russia's two largest petroleum corporations, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously hindered Putin's capability to support his aggression in the region.

Yet, through his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian representatives without Ukrainian or European participation, Trump has apparently reverted to his pro-Putin stance.

Favoring Invasion

The former president's initiative would effectively favor Putin for invading Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Despite strong declarations that "The nation's sovereignty will be upheld", much of the initiative actually weaken that very autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business experience, the former president continues to view the war as a mere land disagreement, as if ceding Russia a section of Ukrainian soil will please the ruler. However, Russia's war is not merely about occupying a charred region of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to eliminate it so it stops serves as an enticing model for the Russia's population of the responsible leadership that his growing authoritarian rule prevents them.

Territorial Concessions

Although maintaining in place the currently split Ukrainian provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the plan would compel the nation to give up all of this eastern territory. Beyond rewarding Russia with area that its military have been unable to capture in more than a decade of fighting, this giveaway would make Ukrainian defensive positions dangerously weakened.

Donetsk is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established military defenses that represent a key obstacle to Russian advances. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these fortifications, leaving Russian forces a open path to Kyiv if he eventually choose to renew the war.

Armed Forces Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would make renewed hostilities easier for Russia, Trump would force the nation to diminish the numbers of its armed forces from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a maximum of 600,000. Importantly, the initiative sets no equivalent constraints on the invading army.

Apparently as a concession to Putin's attempts to portray Ukraine's democratically elected government as Nazis, Trump's proposal states: "Every radical doctrine and actions must be rejected and banned." As if to highlight this point, it insists that "The nation will hold political contests in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. However, Trump imposes no obligation that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting votes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

Admittedly, the proposal makes the Russian Federation promise not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However considering that Putin has breached comparable agreements in the previous instances – such as the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government committed to respect Ukraine's sovereignty in exchange for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia agreed to a ceasefire and a return of seized land in the Donbas to Ukrainian control – why should we have confidence in Russia now?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international protection assurances. While the proposal warns of a "immediate coordinated armed reaction" if Russia renew its military campaign, and provides that "Ukraine will receive strong protection assurances", the specifics range from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not just deny the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit Nato members from stationing forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been depending to deter Russia from restoring his diminished forces, rearming, and reinvading.

International Response

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would provide Ukraine with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "major, deliberate, and ongoing aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an assault threatening the stability and safety of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. Yet in contrast to a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's primary deterrent against future hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, like the US administration, to react through arms to Russia's attacks, something they have {not