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Breaking into the planet's most popular art institution in the middle of the day, grabbing eight items of invaluable historical gems and vanishing into Paris traffic on simple scooters may seem like the boldest of crimes, carried out for international notoriety and subsequent Hollywood film treatments.

Specialists who observe patterns in global cultural theft, however, see the recent heist at the Louvre as something more prosaic: the latest in a string of smash-and-grab thefts centered more on the material value of valuable gems or metals than the artifacts’ significance, perpetuating a trend that has appeared over the last ten years in Europe, Britain and the US. The venue, they suggest, would have been of secondary concern to the criminals.

“One might wonder why thieves who want to steal valuable jewellery are entering a world-famous museum rather than a luxury jewelry store,” stated an expert in art recovery. “The answer is simple: it’s because nowadays a Cartier store is more secure.”

A series of violent jewellery shop thefts mean that many stores have strengthened their security in the past few years, with armed guards on their premises and merchandise no longer shown overnight. Cultural institutions, on the other hand, look more exposed, in part because of the in-built reason of being accessible institutions in older structures, and partly the current economic climate in many developed nations.

“After the pandemic, authorities across the world have cut back on law enforcement and the culture sector,” said Marinello. “With criminals entering the Louvre, it demonstrates how at risk our institutions have become. This is a horrible time to be a museum.”

The theft of the items – including necklaces made up of eight sapphires and hundreds of gems, the tiara of a historical figure containing thousands of diamonds and a extremely expensive diadem once possessed by Napoleon III’s wife that the robbers left by the street on their way out – has naturally drawn comparisons with the 1911 theft of the famous painting from the Louvre, performed by the Italian handyman Vincenzo Peruggia.

More relevant points of reference may be the recent theft of valuables from Dresden’s Green Vault Museum worth over millions, the theft of a multi-million pound gold toilet from a UK landmark the same year, the 2017 heist of a large gold coin from a European museum or even a spate of robberies of collector items from American institutions.

“There’s a simple pattern here,” said Marinello. “Smash, grab, and melt it down as quickly as possible.”

If the items were to remain intact, specialists say, the criminals would find it hard to find a buyer. “It's impossible to sell something as recognizable as the museum's gems on the legal marketplace”, commented an art crime researcher of the Association for Research into Crimes against Art.

“They would be immediately recognised, particularly given the cultural authorities has released images of the items. Even a individual buyer or an auction house would want to see documentation establishing legal possession before handling such striking pieces.”

In the past, museums were often hesitant to announce publicly about the disappearance of well-known art pieces and would stay silent out of embarrassment. These days, as art thefts are more widely publicised, the storage and selling of stolen art is dangerous for any lawbreaker.

“Taking a Picasso, it has to stay complete or it becomes valueless, and you have to devise a scheme to conceal it, perhaps by passing it around dangerous individuals,” said Marinello. “And you’re constantly exposed to the danger of an partner informing authorities to collect a ransom.”

For similar reasons, an investigator said it was highly improbable that the robbery had been ordered. “Commissioned theft is something from films,” he said. “No one would handle these items. It's global news and in all the media. If you buy this, if you get caught, you end up in prison. You cannot show it to your friends, you cannot bequeath it to your children.”

Modifying taken items by dismantling or re-cutting does lower the worth. When it comes to gems, it also comes with significant danger because contemporary methods give gems a larger and brighter surface area, and older-style stones would either draw unwanted attention or barter the price down for a concealment.

Importantly, however, melting down or reshaping eliminates the evidence of the crime. “My guess is that the robbers will try to take the items to locations with gem knowledge like Israel, another nation or even as close as a city, and find someone to cut out the stones,” said Marinello.

The heist at the Louvre has already brought up concerns about security measures at the institution, with a unauthorized official review expected to be published soon criticising “significant” and “ongoing” delays in modernizing equipment and noting that security cameras were lacking in many rooms. But specialists say displaying valuable objects in historic buildings with a constant flow of visitors comes with risks that are not possible to eliminate completely.

“Historic buildings are much harder to protect,” said Erin Thompson. “They often have large accessible windows that makes it easy for criminals to get away, and there may be preservation laws in place that mean you are unable to install them with secure windows.”

The most solid protective measures for structures should be conceptualised “as a stronghold”, said a security advisor. “There should be multiple levels to deter attackers.”

Contemporary structures are equipped with state-of-the-art surveillance systems or in-built seismic detectors that alert about a broken glass in immediately, but historic institutions may be hesitant to uglify their appearance. Laser scanners can be difficult to install to stuccoed ceilings. Sensors may also have to be disabled during the day as hordes of visitors walk through a museum.

The schedule of the robbery, which took place between 9.30am and 9.40am in Paris, was typical of modern robberies, Stürmann said. “It's logical why robberies tend to happen at either opening or closing times. It’s often when guards rotate and prior to the museum is full of visitors who actually act as additional security staff.”

Advances in technology may have thrown up new gadgets that can notify more rapidly and effectively, but it has also given thieves new tools with which to circumvent protections. In Paris, the robbers reached the museum’s upper level with a vehicle-mounted ladder and breached a window with a electric tool.

An author said the discussion in France about the 232-year-old structure had mostly focused on crowd control in the past decade, and not as much on protection.

The institution has an in-house team of about 50 full-time emergency personnel, but their purpose is mostly to protect the artworks from blazes and flooding. “There isn't a rapid-response unit,” Sciolino said. “Ultimately, the safety of the Louvre all comes down to political will and funding, and currently France lacks sufficient resources.”