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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted bid to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the privilege to host the largest global climate summit and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the conference known as Cop31 is headed to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

The result will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the environmental gathering could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "in it to win it".

Uncertain support is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the government have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and at times outright opposed.

There is little sign the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the announcement on this week may, ironically, have been the best result possible.

Bowen set out on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, organizer and effective event manager, and the Australian delegation – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for scepticism. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on global warming.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either bow out voluntarily, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than the joint Pacific proposal to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's host had supported the southern pitch.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have happened under international regulations if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but global cooperation has demonstrably had an impact in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is most crucial.

Despite understandable criticism of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding carbon-based exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from research centers and experienced analysts at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can listen, forge agreement and deliver an significant result. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Unanswered Questions

There are plenty of unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a restriction on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the best chance available to have a conference that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.