Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
